Life Without Carson Wentz
A post-mortem of the most tired thematic in Philadelphia: how do the Eagles shape up post-Carson Wentz?
Carson Wentz’s time in Philadelphia has come to an abrupt and unceremonious ending.
Not many could have predicted the end of the Eagles Super Bowl-winning dynasty this quickly.
Alas, beginning with Jim Schwartz's retirement, followed by Doug Pederson's dismissal, and snowballing into the Wentz divorce, 2017 seems a far cry from the current state of affairs.
Although I’m sure we're all tired of hearing about it, I’m going to milk just a bit more content out of this trade.
So before we retire the subject, let’s review the implications of Wentz’s removal, beginning with 2021 and the draft capital they received in return for their once-promising quarterback.
EVALUATING THE HAUL
The Eagles are taking home a 2021 third-round pick with a conditional 2022 second-round pick to boot.
What’s conditional about it? Well, if Wentz plays 75% of the Indianapolis Colts’ offense snaps or 70% and the Colts make the playoffs, that second-round pick turns into a first-rounder.
Those both seem like relatively likely possibilities if you ask me.
Best case scenario: the Colts finish around 7–9, Wentz stays healthy, and the Colts get eliminated from playoff contention in the final week of the season.
That keeps Wentz in the starter’s chair and dumps out a first-rounder in the 11th to 17th overall range.
There’s a world in which Philadelphia owns a top-ten (potentially top-five barring how bad things get) and another top-fifteen to polish things off. I’m not unhappy about it.
Ultimately, national television ratings for Colts games just gained the unadulterated viewership of the fourth-largest media market in the U.S.
QUARTERBACK ROOM
It sure sounds like Jalen Hurts will begin 2021 as QB1 in Philadelphia.
That will either change with the draft or in the coming weeks of free agency. Let’s evaluate.
Of course, ownership of the sixth overall pick in the 2021 draft could shake things up considerably. You have to figure Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson will indefinitely be gone by number six.
So the realistic options are likely Ohio State’s Justin Fields or North Dakota State’s Trey Lance. Do you feel comfortable rolling the dice on Fields versus Hurts in a lost season? I do not.
Lance, on the other hand, would lead to a full-on Civil War in Philadelphia. You can’t trade your first-round quarterback from NDSU and then draft a first-round quarterback from NDSU. I’m kidding, but I’m not.
Ideally, they stay away from any quarterback controversy and focus on their depleted and aging roster.
Option two for Howie Roseman would be acquiring some quarterback ‘competition’ through the pre-draft acquisition period. Nothing would surprise me after the past few months, and I think he likes to be in the news.
I’m not sure if there’s a ranking of how many fans could name each team's general manager, but I would imagine many people know Roseman’s name.
With free agency/trade season officially underway, Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brisset, and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been mentioned as potential Plan B’s in Philadelphia. Those are all terrible options, and I’ll tell you why.
Although Mariota seemed destined for a stint in Philadelphia circa the Chip Kelly era, he likely doesn’t make an appearance without a trade. It seems unlikely that the Eagles would sacrifice assets for an expensive back-up.
Then there’s Fitzpatrick, who remains one of the last five years' highest fan-approved players. I’m not sure this team needs someone so enigmatic in town.
Finally, Brisset would break the lockerroom. How quickly until we start hearing how fast he’s picked up the offense, having worked with Sirianni in the past?
We saw the fallout of bringing in another potential starter (Hurts ironically) to serve as Philly’s backup. I think the organization needs to come out and back Hurts unapologetically.
Smart money would be playing the Eagles’ 2021 as a throw-away campaign, so why not go all-in on Hurts now?
Speaking of money, let’s talk financial fallout.
LET’S TALK MONEY
Saved the most exciting for last. There’s a lot of numbers here, so feel free to tune out.
With Wentz in Indy, the Eagles will pay $33.8MM in dead money for 2021, per Spotrac.com.
For some context, Philadelphia’s dead cap stands at $40.2MM total, including Desean Jackson’s $5.8MM.
So what does that mean?
In 2020, the cap space in the NFL held at $198.2MM, while the latest estimates have the 2021 cap at $185MM, down roughly 7%.
If you combine this year’s projection with the $22.7MM the Eagles can roll over from 2020, Philadelphia has $207MM total to spend.
Ergo, the Eagles are on the hook for an estimated $248MM total giving Philadelphia roughly -$40.5MM cap space. Yes, not ideal, but fixable.
They’ve yet to officially address the futures of Alshon Jeffery ($7.6MM), Malik Jackson ($5.6MM), Zach Ertz ($12.5MM), Derek Barnett ($10.1MM), or the potential retirement of Jason Kelce ($5.5 base salary).
Shedding some of that, as the team is expected to, would go a very long way in solving any financial issues.
We hope Roseman is better at balancing a checkbook than drafting wide receivers.
In conclusion, there’s just so much ‘new’ in Philadelphia right now.
You’ll likely be saying goodbye and watching the final seasons of many of the organization's cornerstones that brought the Lombardi Trophy to the city for the first time.
Expectations are so low on both a national and local level. Any sort of positive out of next season would be gravy.
We have a new head coach in Nick Sirianni, an unproven sophomore quarterback, and almost nothing to show on the offensive line.
Things could get very bad. So here’s hoping Wentz stays healthy in Indy, and the Eagles can laugh about 2021 five years from now.
Time will tell.
